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The Writing on the Wall (Dec 4 to Dec 7)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Dec 4 through Dec 7 )

December 7, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Dec 4 - 07:48 to 15:45)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting today.

( Dec 4 - 07:48 to 15:45 )

December 7, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 25 to Sep 26)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 25 through Sep 26 )

  • The Keating 5 In 97 Seconds -
  • iYo YOYO Induction Charger lets you enjoy your tunes sans AC -

    Filed under:


    For any iPhone or iPod user brimming with energy that might otherwise go wasted on aimless fidgeting, Swedish designer Peter Thuvander has devised the perfect way for you to marry your hyperactivity and your love for your Apple device: the iYo YOYO Induction Charger. While playing with the charger as you would an ordinary yo-yo, a small lithium-ion battery is charged inside, which in turn powers your device. The idea sounds great, and if it ever gets out of the concept stage we look forward to having our idle hands finally used as something other than the Devil's playthings. Check out a video of the device in rendered action after the break.

    [Via Engadget German]

    Continue reading iYo YOYO Induction Charger lets you enjoy your tunes sans AC

    <h6 style="clear:both;padding:8px 0 0 0;height:2px;font-size:1px;border:0;margin:0;padding:0"></h6>Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

  • What Suspension? -
  • This Is What a Suspended Campaign Looks Like? -

    A Slog tipper with Republican connections sends over a link to images of Cindy McCain's fundraiser in Washington State yesterday—held well after John McCain announced he was "suspending" his campaign.

    McCainFundraiser.JPG

    The link arrived in my in-box at about the same time as this new memo from the Obama camp. It calls McCain's "suspension" a pure political stunt.

    Make no mistake: John McCain did not “suspend” his campaign. He just turned a national crisis into an occasion to promote his campaign. It’s become just another political stunt, aimed more at shoring up the Senator’s aimed more at shoring up the Senator’s political fortunes than the nation’s economy. And it does nothing to help advance this critical legislation to protect the American people during this time of economic crisis.

    The full memo, quite long and full of citations, is in the jump.

  • Listen to Yourself - Man, I just wanted to know how babby was formed.
  • The Dark Bailout -

September 26, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 24 to Sep 25)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 24 through Sep 25 )

  • Busy, busy, busy. -
  • Can McCain Multi-Task? -
  • The Blinkers -
  • Debate! -
  • Do As We Say, Not As We Do -

    World leaders, apparently, are totally pissed that the US is bailing out its own banking system. This, after the US (via the Chicago School) has spent decades telling other countries (especially Third World countries) to not subsidize their failing economies, to let banks fail and markets go bananas, in order to instill market discipline.

    First, let your banks go against the wall, they said, and then we'll give you some aid.

    Now that the US is ignoring its own advice, world leaders are carpe-ing the diem and wondering aloud whether the US hasn't been wrong about free-market discipline all along.

    The secretary general of the UN, Ban Ki Moon:

    "The global financial crisis endangers all our work… We need a new understanding on business ethics and governance, with more compassion and less uncritical faith in the 'magic' of markets."

    The president of France:

    President Nicolas Sarkozy of France described the crisis as the worst financial mess since the Depression and the financial system as "insane."

    The president of Brazil:

    "We must not allow the burden of the boundless greed of a few to be shouldered by all," President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil said in an opening speech Tuesday that reflected the tone of the [UN] gathering.

    The minister from Britain politely noted that the US bailing itself out would be in everyone's best interest—but the rest of the world is hopping mad.

    Bungling in Iraq, bungling our economy, and North Korea giving us the finger by restarting its weapons program and barring inspectors—the US is losing leverage by the day.

September 25, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 24 to Sep 25)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 24 through Sep 25 )

  • Let -
  • Lunchtime Quickie -

    Will someone please give this motherf*cker one of those little gold-and-lucite statuettes that says Employee of the Month?

    Hat tip to Uncle Vinny!

  • Daddy’s Roommate Is Moving Into Wasilla -

    Gay-lesbian titles donated to Wasilla Library.

    Responding to news reports about then-Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin asking a librarian how she would feel about banning books, a San Francisco man has donated two children’s books dealing with homosexuality to the Wasilla Library.

    Mike Petrelis, a 49-year-old who files Freedom of Information requests for a living, said he was aghast to read reports of Palin’s 1996 inquiry about banning certain books at Wasilla’s library.

    The news — old news in the Mat-Su Valley, but new in the Lower 48 — prompted Petrelis to send to Wasilla “Heather Has Two Mommies” and “Daddy’s Roommate,” both children’s books that explain gay lifestyle.

    “I said, ‘I’m going to send copies of both books just to make sure they’re on the shelves,’” Petrelis said.

    I think we all should fall in love with Mike Petrelis a little bit right now.

    (Thanks to Slog tipper Davida.)

  • Obama Responds -
  • Which One Looks More Presidential? -

    I am so glad there's video of the two candidates dealing with Suspension-gate 2008. Maybe even more than the basic comparison of standing the two men next to each other at a debate, this really highlights the matter of who gives off the feeling of a confident, competent commander-in-chief during a time of crisis.

    Who looks more presidential?

    or:

  • Katie Couric Questions Sarah Palin -

    When the un-teleprompted Palin talks, I can't help but think of that dig from E. M. Forster's Howards End–the character Helen talking (page 22 of the Penguin edition): "I felt for a moment that the whole Wilcox family was a fraud, just a wall of newspapers and motor-cars and golf-clubs, and that if it fell I should find nothing behind it but panic and emptiness."

  • National Punctuation Day Reignites Interrobang Passion -
  • How to Stay Awake at Work [Sleep] -

    Funny how insomnia works—when it's time to go to bed, you're wide awake, but at work the next day, you can barely keep your eyes open. If you're in sleep debt but need to keep alert at the office, wikiHow offers a few clever ways to help stay awake at work, like using bright light, stimulating smells, acupressure, a power nap, and high-energy music. See also our top 10 ways to sleep smarter and better.




  • Japan planning its own damn space ladder -

    Filed under:

    Japan making plans to build its own damn space ladder

    If the third time is the charm, yet you botch that attempt just like the earlier two, then what? That's the problem facing NASA and its Space Elevator Challenge, which has for three successive years failed to live up to the vision of Arthur C. Clarke. Japan isn't waiting for a fourth, announcing plans to spend $7.3 billion on its own lift to whisk passengers (and cargo) 22,000 miles aloft on composite cables. It's the cables that are the problem, as they need to be 180 times stronger than steel and obviously much, much lighter. The Japanese are focusing on carbon nanotubes, and while they will need to be engineered four times stronger than current stock before they're up to the task, their highly conductive nature means they can not only support the lift vehicle but also power it. Useful, that, because the ride up could take a couple of days or even weeks, and astronauts will need some way to recharge their PMPs.<h6 style="clear:both;padding:8px 0 0 0;height:2px;font-size:1px;border:0;margin:0;padding:0"></h6>Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

  • Campbell Brown On The Palin Farce -

September 25, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 23 - 11:28 to 23:40)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting today.

( Sep 23 - 11:28 to 23:40 )

September 24, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 22 to Sep 23)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 22 through Sep 23 )

  • The Complement Cooperative -

    Complement%20Cooperative%20Logo.jpgWell, that was a lot of money chasing nothing.

    It's not as if we're lacking in problems needing solutions–climate change, energy scarcity, almost every meaningful commodity priced at historical highs. A vast pool of money, and a growing list of problems–why wasn't the connection ever made? Why didn't at least some of this wealth go to solving even a few of these problems?

    It’s not from a lack of scientific and technological progress. Humanity is at an absolute peak in scientific productivity—with the United States still the undisputed leader in the expansion of human knowledge and ability.

    Why are we failing to make this connection?
    —

    Let’s say you and I start a company, with the goal of replacing petroleum-based jet fuel. We engineer a bug that spits out something pretty damn close to kerosene. Excellent!

    Since we’re a company, we immediately patent the invention.

    Now what? While we’ve just figured out a key step, our invention by itself cannot replace jet fuel. We need to invent (or more likely buy) the technology to refine our proto-fuel to something we could put into jet, buy up the bioreactor technology to grow our bugs, buy the land and build a factory, build up a distribution network, convince some airlines to buy our fuel and so on.

    That’s a lot of pieces; we only own one right now. If we raised the money and assembled all of these to the point where we could actually sell an useful product, we’d be first. We don’t want to be first. If we show it can be done, what would stop someone in China, or India or somewhere else in the world from simply stealing all of this technology and competing with us? (Our present global economy isn’t exactly brimming with respect for intellectual property.) Without the cost of buying up all the patents—the costs of developing the technology—they’d easily outcompete us. By being first, we end up broke.

    We’re better of selling our patent. We could sell this patent to someone who wants to turn it into a product—but they’d run into the same problem we would on that path. No. The most likely buyer of our patent would be someone who desires our technology to never be turned into a product—someone who already makes jet fuel from petroleum.

    Patents, in our post intellectual property world, are more valuable as a defensive weapon–a means of preventing new competition from entering the few markets where patents still mean something.

    To a large extent, this is why all the wonderful scientific knowledge and technical ability pouring out of R&D labs fails to translate to something useful for humanity.

    (More after the jump or at dearscience.org, including my exciting solution to this problem….)

  • “I Want This Motherfucking Whale Off This Motherfucking Boat!” -

    Ain't It Cool News points to this article in Variety. The director of Night Watch and Wanted is filming a re-imagination of Moby Dick.

    The writers revere Melville’s original text, but their graphic novel-style version will change the structure. Gone is the first-person narration by the young seaman Ishmael…This change will allow them to depict the whale’s decimation of other ships prior to its encounter with Ahab’s Pequod, and Ahab will be depicted more as a charismatic leader than a brooding obsessive…"Our vision isn’t your grandfather’s ‘Moby Dick,’ " Cooper said. "This is an opportunity to…tell what at its core is an action-adventure revenge story."

    At first blush, I think this has to be a joke, but then I remember the Demi Moore version of The Scarlet Letter, with its happy ending, and I bet this will actually happen.

  • The World, Justified -
  • Apple ‘Solves’ Problem With App Store Rejections -
  • CS4: Sweating the Details -
  • Debates May Not Be Decisive After All -
  • al-Qaeda’s October Surprise? -
  • The Twelve Lies Of Sarah Palin -
  • Alaska’s Paralyzed Government -
  • ‘All of a Sudden’ -

September 24, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 21 to Sep 22)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 21 through Sep 22 )

  • "Thought helmets" could enable voiceless troop communication -
  • Google Books Now Embeddable [Google] -
  • The 2009 Compact Calendar Now Available [Printables] -


    Designer David Seah has updated his Compact Calendar spreadsheet for 2009 (already!). Download this excellent "candy bar of time" printable calendar for a quick, consolidated view of the entire year with U.S. holidays built right in. I've been using the 2008 version to track a long-term project that needs work every day, and it's a fabulous little tool for just X'ing off days as you go in a linear fashion. The 2009 Compact Calendar is a free download, and the template should work in just about any modern spreadsheet app.

    Compact Calendar [David Seah]


  • What Advertising Can -
  • ‘Nuh-Uh, My Mom Thinks I’m Cool’ -
  • She -

  • How Democracies Become Dictatorships -
  • BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs - In a controversial move sure to upset millions of people, Barack Obama’s campaign has decided to forgo the traditional time-wasting distribution of chum (yard signs, bumper stickers, etc.) to try and win the election.

    Settling on what they call a “get voters to register by approaching them on the phone and at the door with an army of volunteers” strategy, Obama’s senior staff has directed state, regional, and local field organizers to use their finite time to make tangible progress toward winning.

    It’s an approach that has ruffled some Democratic feathers.

    That got me concerned, and I headed out to the Leesburg, Virginia, Obama office to see about getting myself one, thinking that some visibility for the Democratic ticket on my street was more critical than ever. My neighbors sometimes need "permission" to display their Democratic preferences, even though our Republican friends don't seem to wait for anyone's invitation.

    Despite Obama’s 100% name recognition, opponents of the “maybe worry about visibility after registration deadlines close” strategy pronounced the situation “dire” on the front page of Daily Kos yesterday.

    So dire was the situation that volunteers in the office were taking up collections to have their own signs printed.

    Asked about this dire situation in Virginia, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded*, “You have got to be $@!#ing kidding me. Is this a joke? I’m busy, I have to go.”

    The Obama campaign goal has been to register and track over 300,000 new voters in Virginia, including the direly-situated Leesburg. Though they are on pace to achieve this goal, some Democrats are concerned that people will see more McCain signs and feel dispirited.

    Top Obama strategist David Axelrod, when reached for comment Sunday, noted*, “these yard sign questions are making my brain bleed. Please stop.”

    Still, concerned Democrats are up in arms.

    I need to know what's up with this. I know a lot of people don't think yard signs mean anything at all, but where I live, they're a critical part of the ground game — like I said, giving less political or less outspoken neighbors the permission they need to open up about their support. (emphasis added)

    Obama campaign strategists believe that, with their massive months-long, grinding-it-out-every-day registration plan, that 80 percent of those new registrations would vote for Obama, and that 75% of the newly registered voters will turn out. If 75% of an 80-20 split on 300,000 new registrants turns out, that’s Barack Obama adding 135,000 bonus votes to his total in Virginia alone. Organizers in Obama’s Virginia campaign offices have been sternly instructed to focus on those numbers by spending long, exhausting days recruiting volunteers instead of spending their limited time worrying about whether there are enough yard signs to go around.

    Still, some concerned Democrats need to know what the heck these guys are thinking, because “feeling good” is really important.

    Concernedly, they stress that seeing a yard sign is one way for neighbors to have conversations with one another about politics. Since most people tend to vote or not vote based on visibility peer pressure**, Dems may be in danger of losing the tender flower swing vote to McCain.

    In South Carolina’s crushing Obama primary win, there were a measly 1,000 Obama yard signs in the entire state. But asked whether an “up mood” via yard sign is a “critical part of the ground game in Virginia,” National Field Director Temo Figeroa began laughing until the end of time*.

    *Note: Made-up quotes. But not inaccurate, wanna wager?
    **Note: Absolutely false

    *-*

    Listen.

    Organizers – the people out there killing themselves to win this election – hate yard signs with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns.

    Barack Obama’s organizers hate them. John McCain’s organizers hate them. It’s because yard signs don’t vote – but they do generate a ridiculous amount of complaining that must be patiently listened to. Until yard signs sprout little legs and go to the polls on Election Day, in a presidential election with universal name recognition they are just a nice little decoration.

    They’re little feel good things, making you feel like you’re on the team. There is nothing wrong with that – that’s not the objection. The objection is that there is limited time for organizers to accomplish a wide array of prioritized tasks, and in this election they’ve chosen to prioritize identifying, registering, persuading and getting their voters to the polls. Yard signs cut into the organizer’s sleep time – literally.

    A lot of people aren’t going to like hearing this truth, but organizers recognize that the majority of people who walk into offices for yard signs are, for volunteering purposes – and this is a technical term – useless. In the majority, these people are not going to knock, they’re not going to make phone calls. Instead, they are going to throw the organizer’s incredibly precious, sleep-deprived time down a bottomless abyss of irretrievability.

    People who plant yard signs are maybe going to make their neighbors aware that they support a particular candidate, and in theory, if they live near voters who cede their opinions to peer pressure, they could theoretically be shading the influence of a vote here or there.

    Here’s a little secret: there will always be exceptions, but people who spend a lot of time volunteering in campaign offices tend to get yard signs. Organizers know and love these people dearly, and they take care of them.

    Every single person pouring real effort into this campaign knows what I’m writing is true. In every office we stop into, we ask both sides about yard signs. It’s unanimous. In good old purple Colorado, in Montezuma County, the Republican women volunteering at the local office pointed out how their signs read, “Paid for by the Montezuma County Republican Party.” They, too, had to generate their own local signs, and have to deal with unhappy people who stop in to get their prize but go away empty handed.

    Yes, of course it would be nice to have more yard signs. If organizers had an infinite amount of time, they would be happy to pester their bosses up the ladder to see when they’re coming in. Then they’d love to chat with you about how someone stole or defaced them, and run a bunch of replacements right out.

    But in the very purple, exurban Northern Virginia neighborhoods there is a problem. There’s a walk list sitting in a campaign office not being walked and knocked, and a newly-registered voter who projects as .45 of a vote for Obama is not being registered.

    That one was for you, Every Organizer in America. Love ya, you magnificent bastards.

  • MST3K Young Man -

  • On Reading Well [Ungeek To Live] -


    If you're anything like me, then you have a difficult time tearing yourself away from the work you do for any length of time. Like Jack Nicholson in The Shining, all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. Indeed. That's why I refuse to read business books. Not for lack of interest. There's many a Drucker that has me drooling. Lord knows I need the advice. But if I'm going to read, then it's going to be for relaxation, stimulation, and escape. Work has enough of my mental cycles. Why not lend a few to the world of inspiration as well? Photo by furryjumpergirl

    Booklists

    Photo by eoshinsky
    Simply said, the best place to find out about new books is from your friends. Yes, there are social networks for that kind of thing. I prefer an old school, top-down approach. If you're buying dead-tree technology, the old world system still works handily for getting the cream to rise to the top. The age-old dance between Writers, Agents, Editors, Publishers and You has its charms. For my money, there is no substitute for the Sunday New York Times Book Review. There is also the New York Review of Books. Both of those are the staples of the elite and will keep you in the know if not also inspire you to pick up a title from time to time.

    Aside from those, the widest range of book reviews comes from the larger local rags. I'm talking the Chron, the Miami Herald, Chicago Sun-Times, LA Times, and more. Stay tuned to what the literati are writing. They are paid to know what's up. Whether you're looking for crime fiction or sports, memoir or fantasy, all of these sources are committing a good deal of effort in keeping you interested in reading.

    Bookstores

    Photo by brewbooks
    B. Dalton's is not a bookstore. If it's in an airport, it's crap. Don't go to Borders or Barnes & Noble. The books that the NY Times are going to review, you'll be able to find them at your local used bookstore too. Find that shop. In Portland, Powell's. In London, Hatchard's. I've found used booksellers in the smallest towns a hundred miles from civilization. If you have roads, you have books. But more importantly, find your local bookstore owner. Give her a hug. Visit frequently, even if only to buy one book at time. If you should find yourself walking out with an arm-load of tomes, keep in mind that a wall of (unread) books makes for excellent decor. In my mind, there is no worthier cause for support than the investment you are making into someone who's sole goal in life is the stack books behind the counter that she might think you like. Go, on, don't be shy. Bibliophiles do not bite.

    Reading Hour

    Photo by Moriza
    Do it. If your goal is to unwind, TV can be awful tempting. Resist. You've got your favorite shows. You've got TiVo. Save the TV time for social hour at home. Watch TV with friends. But if you have time to steal away for yourself, pick up a book instead.

    If you're the scheduling type, and you put everything in your calendar, the put this in your calendar too: reading hour. Set aside one hour every night for you, yourself and thou. No TV. Pour a glass of wine. Put on some something ambient. Pick up some pages, pops, it's reading hour.

    Oh, do Toilet

    Photo bybrimelow
    If you can't read for an hour, then try ten minutes a day. I, too, have an incredibly short attention span. I find it difficult to sit and read and just plain relax. If I am reading, it's guaranteed to be interrupted. Ten minutes alone is a luxury usually only afforded while adorning the throne. Ah, yes, here I'm talking about the toilet read. It's the epitome of relaxation. The very face of edification.

    What characterizes the toilet read above others is the brevity of chapters. My favorites are usually non-fiction in variety and can be opened at any page to be enjoyed and understood.

    Here's a shortlist of contenders:
    A Natural History of the Senses by Diane Ackerman
    DSM-V
    The Intellectual Devotional (now a series of books)
    The Bible (King James edition)
    Encyclopedia of Rock n' Roll

    You can never go wrong with the great essayists of the modern era:
    Joan Didion on culture and relationships
    Bruce Chatwin on travel, art and architecture
    Anthony Lane, on film, books, theater and pop culture
    Nick Tosches, on music
    Richard Meltzer, on music
    Julian Barnes, on London

    Now We're Talking!
    Leave some comments, yeah? Do you have a favorite toilet read? What genres do you find help take your mind off work? What books provide the most inspiration? What are your favorite local bookstore haunts?

    Kelly Abbott is the founder of Dandelife. His weekend series, Ungeek to Live, highlights ways you can get things done without always involving tech.


September 22, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 20 to Sep 21)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 20 through Sep 21 )

  • YouTube - Sarah Palin -

  • Palin -
  • Stephen Hawking unveils the most morbid, amazing $1.8m clock you’ll ever see -

    Filed under:

    We'll warn you in advance, this is only for those who dig the weird, all things Stephen Hawking or clock-making in general. This £1 million ($1.83 million) timepiece took seven years to completely construct, and the initiative was led by inventor John Taylor who designed it in tribute to John Harrison (only the world's greatest clockmaker, it's said). The bizarre Corpus Clock visually explains that it relies on grasshopper escapement to function, and to let you know that time can never be regained once lost, that beast on top actually gobbles down time every 60th second. Oh, and every hour, on the hour, the sound of a "chain dropping into a wooden coffin" is played to really pound home the "time is a destroyer" concept. Thanks for the reminder, Dr. Grim.

    [Via Switched]

  • Netflix Origami Finds Fun Use for DVD Wrappers [NetFlix] -
  • ScreenFonts: Ping Pong Playa, Bangkok Dangerous, A Secret, Mister Foe, Burn After Reading -
  • The Palin Nightmare -
  • Why Palin Fired Monegan -
  • YouTube - MST3K - A Date With Your Family -
  • Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points - Mark Blumenthal has a rundown of the pollsters that are including cellphone numbers in their samples. Apparently, Pew, Gallup, USA Today/Gallup (which I consider a separate survey), CBS/NYT and Time/SRBI have been polling cellphones all year. NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post and the AP/GfK poll have also recently initiated the practice. So too does the Field Poll in California, PPIC, also based in California, and Ann Selzer. There may be some others too but those are the ones that I am aware of. (EDIT: The director of the PPIC survey in California has kindly written to let me know that, while they use a cellphone supplement for some of their public policy surveys, they have not done so thus far this year for their Presidential trial heats. The remainder of this article has been corrected accordingly.

    Let's look at the house effects for these polls — that is, how much the polls have tended to lean toward one candidate or another. These are fairly straightforward to calculate, via the process described here. Essentially, we take the average result from the poll and compare it to other polls of that state (treating the US as a 'state') after adjusting the result based on the national trendline.

    Since ABC, NBC/WSJ and AP/GfK all just recently began using cellphones, we will ignore their data for now. We will also throw out the data from three Internet-based pollsters, Zogby Interactive, Economist/YouGov, and Harris Interactive. This leaves us with a control group of 36 37 pollsters that have conducted at least three general election polls this year, either at the state or national level.

    Pollster                 n   Lean=========                    ====Selzer                   5   D +7.8CBS/NYT                 14   D +3.7Pew                      7   D +3.4Field Poll               4   D +2.8Time/SRBI                3   D +2.4USA Today/Gallup        11   D +0.4

Gallup                 184   R +0.6PPIC                     4   R +1.3

AVERAGE                      D +2.8 +2.3

CONTROL GROUP (37 Pollsters) D +0.0 +0.1

    Six of the seven eight cellphone-friendly pollsters have had a Democratic (Obama) lean, and in several cases it has been substantial. On average, they had a house effect of Obama +2.8 +2.3. By comparison, the control group had essentially zero house effect a house effect of Obama +0.1 (**), so this would imply that including a cellphone sample improves Obama's numbers by 2.8 points. (Or, framed more properly, failing to include cellphones hurts Obama's numbers by approximately 2 2-3 points).

    The difference is statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. Perhaps not coincidentally, Gallup, Pew and ABC/WaPo have each found a cellphone effect of between 1-3 points when they have conducted experiments involving polling with and without a cellphone supplement.

    A difference of 2-3 points may not be a big deal in certain survey applications such as market research, but in polling a tight presidential race it makes a big difference. If I re-run today's numbers but add 2.2 points to Obama's margin in each non-cellphone poll, his win percentage shoots up from 71.5 percent to 78.5 percent, and he goes from 303.1 electoral votes to 318.5 (EDIT: I have not changed this part of the analysis in reflection of the new numbers, as it should still get the general point across). The difference would be more pronounced still if Obama hadn't already moved ahead of McCain by a decent margin on our projections.

    So this is my plea to pollsters: let's get it right. Perhaps the cellphone effect will prove to be a mirage after all, but that's something for the data to determine on its own, rather than the pollster.

    (**) Keen observers will wonder why the average house effect is greater than zero. This is because in determining our house effect coefficients, we weight based on how many polls each pollster has conducted. A couple of pollsters that account for a large proportion of our data, like Rasmussen and ARG, have had slight (very slight, but enough to skew the numbers) GOP leans.

  • Shorpy -

    shorpy.jpg

    I'm currently obsessed with this endlessly awesome blog called Shorpy, which features beautiful, high-res photographs from 1900-1950.

    Thought you should know.

September 21, 2008   No Comments

The Writing on the Wall (Sep 18 to Sep 19)

by Josh Hemsath

These are some posts I found interesting over the last few days.

( Sep 18 through Sep 19 )

  • Hello, My Name Is -

    Badges are often a decidedly unfun and necessary evil of attending conferences. I have a pile of the things, some too big or too small, and others so garish they feel like a punishment. I can deal with an ugly badge, but I hate an unusable one.

    The previous version of the An Event Apart badges that I designed used a generous setting of Garamond, contained all the relevant information, and looked the part just fine. But in practice we found the type to be too soft and the additional information a tad too big.

    When it comes to conference badges, information can be sorted into two categories: critical and non-critical—which can just as easily be summed up as seen by others and seen by you. Anything that is “seen by others” should be large or digestable immediately from a distance. Everything else is pretty much there for people who want to hang on to the badge as a keepsake.

    Mike Davidson wrote on the topic a while back, calling this mindset “The S.O.B.” or “Socially Optimized Badge”. When there are a few hundred people sitting around at a conference, chances are good that they know where they are and what they’re attending. Usually, the most vital piece of information they don’t know is everyone else’s name.

    The new AEA badges I designed this year use Joshua Darden’s Freight Sans, a sturdy typeface at a size that can be read from across the room. All of the secondary information like the event name or date are given considerably less real estate.

    I don’t get the chance to do a lot of print work, but I really enjoy making these. We dump the attendee list out in XML and I pull it into an InDesign template (which is like coaxing a fish to spontaneously sprout legs and walk on land). I then go through each badge to tweak longer names that don’t work with the default type sizes I’ve set up.

    The end result isn’t a modern marvel of design, but it is a much more useful badge; big and clear type for the important stuff while the secondary info gets out of the way. And it’s tremendously useful for a chronic name forgetter such as myself. Now I can be sneaky when I cruise badges.

    Left: old AEA badge design, right: new design

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September 19, 2008   No Comments

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